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Deutsche Bank on China COVID – added to existing fears about a US recession

Deutsche Bank in China’s fumbling on coronavirus:

  • there are growing concerns among investors that there’ll be a return to lockdowns following the weekend news that they’d had their first Covid death in six months
  • The overall rise in case numbers now makes this the third-largest outbreak of the pandemic so far
  • Beijing has increased its restrictions
  • This has all served to dampen the speculation of recent weeks that China might be moving gradually away from its zero-Covid strategy, and the city of Shijiazhuang has even asked residents to stay at home for 5 days
  • The irony is that the China reopening story has been a big positive driver of China-related risk and overall markets over the last couple of weeks, so we are trading between feast and famine on this story. Both could of course be ultimately right. There might be many more restrictions in the near term but stronger more durable reopenings by the spring.
  • The more negative tone out of China yesterday has only added to existing fears about a US recession over the coming months

This also:

I like the “trading between feast and famine” metaphor from DB – once this slow Thanksgiving week is over volatility is likely crank up again.

From the Tuesday wrap:

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies

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