The Fed acknowledged that the cumulative tightenings do matter. What does that do in December and early 2023? Does the Fed still plan to keep rates steady for an extended period after that. Those are the questions at the presser I would be interested in.
For now, the initially reaction is Stocks, higher, yields lower, and dollar lower.
Looking at the US stock market , the before and after shows:
- Dow industrial average up 23.24 points or 0.07% before the announcement. Currently up 284 points or 0.87%.
- S&P index down 13.8 points or -0.36% before the announcement. Currently up 24 points or 0.62%
- NASDAQ index -95.14 points or -0.87% before the announcement. Currently up 35.46 points or 0.33%
- Russell 2000-24.75 points or -1.34% before the announcement. Currently up 3.04 points or 0.17%
- 2 year yield 4.54% moves to 4.464%
- 5 year yield moves from 4.235% to 4.169%
- 10 year yield moves from 4.028% to 3.999%
- 30 year yield moves from 4.078% to 4.098%
in other markets
- crude oil moves from $89.66 to $89.93
- spot gold moves from $1649.60 to $1663.65
- spot silver moved from $19.61 to $19.89
looking at the forex market:
- EURUSD. The EURUSD has moved from 0.9879 to a high of 0.9959. The price is back above its near converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages between 0.9922 and 0.9929. Stay above those moving averages tilts the bias more to the upside.
- USDJPY. The USDJPY move from 147.00 to a low of 146.03. The current price trades at 146.16. A swing area between 146.12 and 146.426 has been broken. The next key target area starts at 145.46 and goes to 145.227. On the topside a move back above the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the October 5 low comes in at and then the low from earlier in the day at 146.81 would give sellers some cause for pause.
- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD went from 1.1465 to a high of 1.1558. The current prices trading at 1.1539. On the move to the upside the price has move back above its 100 hour moving average at 1.15295. Stay above that moving average would give the buyers control. Move below and then move below 1.14950 would give the buyers cause for pause. The rising 200 hour moving averages at 1.14758. A move back below that level would not be good. On the topside the next target area comes between 1.1596 and 1.16205. The 1.1600 is near a downward some trendline on the daily chart and is also the natural resistance level. Key level on further upside momentum.
- AUDUSD: The AUDUSD move from 0.64082 high price of 0.64756. In the process the price moved back above its 100 hour moving average at 0.64177, and a swing area between 0.64318 and 0.6451. Watch that area for support on a corrective move. The range for the week has increased to 96 pips to 108 pips. The midpoint for the year of 2022 is 175 pips. There is room to roam on further upside momentum.