IN the first week of 2017, the low price in the EURUSD reached 1.0339. A period of 278 weeks later (some 5 years and 4 months) the price has returned to with 14 pips of that level today. The low price reached 1.0353 today.
The early risk focused buyers against the level have been able to push the price up to 1.03756. It’s a modest move given the oversized range of 176 pips but it is indicative of a lower bid – at least as long as the low can continue to hold support.
Drilling into the hourly chart, the tumble lower today got a shove lower after the Asian session high stalled well ahead of the converged 100/200 hour MAs and the price fell below the up and down range that confined the pair between 1.04709 and 1.0641. Breaking out of that range turned dip buyers to seller and sellers from above, into more confident sellers.
It would now take a move back above 1.0400 to give the buyers against the key daily chart, some added confidence. Absent that, and traders will be looking for a move up to – and through – the 38.2% of the move down from the high yesterday at 1.0438, and then the 50% of the same move at 1.0461. That is near the low from April 28 at 1.04709.
Yes… there is a reason to buy the fall as risk can be defined vs the 2017 low, but only if the price can stay above that level at 1.0339. Also the price needs to extend back above 1.0400 and then the 1.0438 to 1.04709 area to give the buyers more control and hope for more upside probing.