US initial jobless claims 293K vs 319K estimate

Jobless claims falls below 300K for the first time since the start of the pandemic

• Prior week revised to 329 from 326K previously reported
• Jobless claims 393K vs 319K estimate
• 4 week average 334.2 vs 344K last week
• Continuing claims 2.593M
• 4 week moving average 2.737M vs 2.768M last week
• The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 2 was in Pennsylvania (+1,707), 
• The largest
  decreases were in California (-14,733), District of Columbia (-3,905), Michigan (-3,370), Missouri (-2,598), and Texas
  (-2,376)
• Full report

The trend to the downside is good news for the next jobs report. The claims data did start to move to the downside but it did not start to move lower until after the survey week from last months jobs report.  The jobs report released last Friday came in weaker than expected at 194K vs 490K estimate. The prior 4 weeks of claims have come in at 332K, 351K, 362K and 326K.  The fall to 293K is a 19% improvement.  

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