Technical Analysis

S&P 500 falls below the 100-day moving average for the first time since October

First time below the 100-dma in the Biden era

The S&P 500 hasn’t been below the 100-day moving average since late October. Even then it was only for a few days. Before that you need to go back to May 2020 for a sustained stretch below the key level, which is at 4326 today.

The VIX is up to 27.69, which is the highest since May.

Fear is certainly in the air. The market is sending a message to the Fed and to China that rate hikes aren’t welcome.

The bond market is confirming the risk averse tone as 100-year yields fall 7.1 bps to a new session low at 1.2989%.

This commentary from JPM’s Marko Kolanovic is doing the rounds:

“is primarily driven by technical selling .. However, our fundamental thesis remains unchanged, and we see the sell-off as an opportunity to buy the dip. .. Risks are well-flagged and priced in, with stock multiples back at post-pandemic lows ..”

I’d be careful with that, Kolanovic is a guy who thinks everything is technically driven. I don’t see any scenario where you can ignore what’s happening in China. He’s been calling for overweight in emerging markets lately.

He upgraded his year-end target on the S&P 500 last week:

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